League Waiver Snapshot
What 8 fantasy analysts are bidding this week, as % of season FAAB budget.
2026 · Week 5 · updated Oct 7, 7:19 AM
How to read this
Bid is the experts' consensus claim as a share of your season FAAB budget (12% = $12 of $100), with the single highest and lowest figures dropped once five or more experts have priced him. Range runs from the lowest figure anyone published to the highest.
Hit % is how often waiver pickups in a similar situation (2021–2025) finished the season as a weekly starter at their position — a historical rate, not a prediction. VOR is the points per game he is projected to add over a replacement-level starter under your league's settings, and Owned is the share of leagues where he is already rostered.
Waiver-priority league? Read Bid as how hard the experts are chasing him; the budget panels are hidden.
| Pos | Player | Owned | Bid | Range | ROS PPG | Factors?Hit % — how often a pickup like this has worked out Fitted on 545 waiver adds, 2021–2025. "Worked out" = ended the season startable at his position (QB12 / RB24 / WR36 / TE12). The base rate for all waiver adds is 27%. factorodds95% CIwhy ▼ Outside ECR top 1500.45x0.26–0.78The level veto, and the most reliable negative in the pool: 11-13% startable against a 27% base. It is where the consensus has him NOW, not how far he moved — the move was measured and carries nothing once the level is known. ▲ Inside ECR top 1251.41x0.85–2.32Mildly positive, and not established on its own (the interval spans 1.00). Inside the top 150 the consensus barely separates within this pool: top-75 runs 38.8% against 29.8% for 101-125, with overlapping intervals. ▼ Running back0.59x0.34–1.01RBs off the wire clear their bar least often of the four positions (21%), because top-24 RB is an expensive bar. Borderline (p=.054). ▲ Tight end2.25x1.28–3.95TEs clear their bar most often (37%) — but largely because top-12 TE is the cheapest bar on the board: a 7.1 PPG tight end clears it where a receiver needs 7.9. Real for hit rate; it is scarcity, not scoring. ▲ Quarterback1.84x1.03–3.28QBs clear top-12 QB 36% of the time. Same caveat as TE — a shallow position with a cheap bar, not evidence they score more. ▲ RB, round 1-2 pick10.46x3.23–33.91The largest effect measured anywhere in this pool: round 1-2 backs hit 69% against a 22% RB base. Draft pedigree is not inside a projection, which is why it adds. On n=13 — the direction is decisive, the size is not. Greyed rows are not established — the interval spans 1.00. And the column as a whole is a measured rate, not a demonstrated edge: no model tested beats simply ranking by ECR at p<.05 on any metric. It exists to put the historical base rates in front of you at the moment of the decision. | Hit % | VOR | RW ± | ECR | Src | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Will ShipleyPHI | 14% | 15.5% | 7% – 43% | 2.0#69 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -6.8#311 | +0.9 | RB56▲33 | 8 | 1,652,918 |
| TE | T.J. HockensonMIN | 48% | 2% | 0% – 7% | 7.4#19 pos | ▲Tight end2.25x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 26%0.93x base | -0.7#125 | +1.6 | TE19▲6 | 8 | 122,525 |
| RB | Keaton MitchellLAC | 32% | 6.2% | 1% – 17.5% | 5.9#42 pos | ▼Running back0.59x | 17%0.61x base | -2.9#176 | −0.3 | RB45▲3 | 7 | 966,816 |
| WR | Tyreek HillFAOut | · | 6.2% | 1% – 12.5% | · | · | · | · | · | · | 7 | 1,027,888 |
| WR | Keon ColemanBUF | 18% | 5.4% | 3% – 11% | 5.2#75 pos | ▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 13%0.48x base | -3.0#179 | +2.5 | WR72▲10 | 7 | 5,146,101 |
| WR | Tre' HarrisLAC | 10% | 4.2% | 2% – 9% | 6.4#59 pos | ▲Inside ECR top 1251.41x | 32%1.18x base | -1.8#150 | +4.0 | WR57▲3 | 7 | 218,304 |
| TE | Mike GesickiCIN | 14% | 2.2% | 0% – 6.5% | 5.6#26 pos | ▲Tight end2.25x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 26%0.93x base | -2.5#168 | +1.5 | TE26▲4 | 7 | 555,436 |
| QB | Aaron RodgersPIT | 13% | 1.7% | 0% – 3% | 13.8#27 pos | ▲Quarterback1.84x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 22%0.80x base | -4.8#232 | −2.0 | QB29▼1 | 7 | 323,612 |
| RB | Emanuel WilsonSEA | 64% | 13.3% | 6% – 20% | 2.4#66 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -6.4#288 | +1.3 | RB53▲6 | 6 | 2,241,963 |
| WR | Malik WashingtonMIA | 37% | 5.7% | 0% – 11% | 8.2#43 pos | ▲Inside ECR top 1251.41x | 32%1.18x base | 0.0#93 | +2.3 | WR58▲5 | 6 | 280,720 |
| QB | Jacoby BrissettARI | 22% | 3.8% | 1% – 6% | 15.3#23 pos | ▲Quarterback1.84x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 22%0.80x base | -3.3#188 | −1.0 | QB26±0 | 6 | — |
| WR | Dohnte MeyersCIN | 5% | 1.7% | 0% – 6% | 0.6#150 pos | ▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 13%0.48x base | -7.6#376 | +0.5 | WR99±0 | 6 | 3,899,322 |
| QB | Kirk CousinsLV | 32% | 1.6% | 0% – 2.5% | 15.8#20 pos | ▲Quarterback1.84x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 22%0.80x base | -2.8#171 | +0.7 | QB25▲4 | 6 | 997,832 |
| TE | Brenton StrangeJAX | 35% | 1% | 0% – 1% | 7.5#18 pos | ▲Tight end2.25x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 26%0.93x base | -0.7#124 | +1.5 | TE18▲2 | 6 | 239,688 |
| QB | Jameis WinstonNYG | 5% | 1% | 0% – 1% | 11.7#31 pos | ▲Quarterback1.84x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 22%0.80x base | -6.9#316 | · | QB32▲1 | 5 | 31,554 |
| WR | Roman WilsonPIT | 10% | 1% | 1% | 4.5#78 pos | ▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 13%0.48x base | -3.6#200 | +0.1 | WR82▲14 | 5 | 1,846,917 |
| RB | Austin EkelerWAS | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.1#61 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -5.7#259 | · | RB81▲20 | 5 | 213,676 |
| RB | Brian RobinsonATL | 41% | 10% | 10% | 4.3#54 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -4.5#225 | +0.1 | RB47▲8 | 4 | 818,748 |
| RB | Tyler AllgeierARI | 44% | 4% | 1% – 9% | 5.8#43 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -3.0#181 | −0.2 | RB49▲4 | 4 | 447,775 |
| TE | Tyler HigbeeLAR | 3% | 2.2% | 0% – 6% | 1.7#61 pos | ▲Tight end2.25x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 26%0.93x base | -6.4#290 | +0.7 | TE34▲4 | 4 | 608,481 |
| WR | Khalil ShakirBUF | 57% | 2% | 1% – 4% | 7.8#48 pos | ▲Inside ECR top 1251.41x | 32%1.18x base | -0.4#104 | −1.3 | WR47▲4 | 4 | 256,851 |
| QB | Deshaun WatsonCLE | 11% | 1.8% | 0% – 2.5% | 12.0#32 pos | ▲Quarterback1.84x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 22%0.80x base | -6.6#194 | +0.1 | QB31▲1 | 4 | 252,848 |
| WR | Jalen RoyalsKC | · | 0% | 0% | 1.7#117 pos | · | · | -6.5#291 | +1.6 | · | 4 | — |
| QB | Tyler HuntleyBAL | 1% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 10.9#36 pos | ▲Quarterback1.84x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 22%0.80x base | -7.7#117 | · | QB39±0 | 3 | 162,392 |
| RB | Jaylen WrightMIA | 26% | 7% | 3% – 14% | 4.5#52 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -4.3#217 | +4.8 | RB54▼10 | 3 | — |
| RB | Chris RodriguezJAX | 30% | 2% | 2% | 5.5#45 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -3.3#190 | −1.2 | RB55▼1 | 3 | 74,853 |
| WR | Darius CooperPHI | 2% | 1.8% | 1.5% – 4% | 0.5#152 pos | ▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 13%0.48x base | -7.6#380 | +0.3 | WR114±0 | 3 | 490,399 |
| TE | Michael MayerLV | 9% | 1.5% | 1.5% – 4.5% | 4.9#30 pos | ▲Tight end2.25x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 26%0.93x base | -3.3#187 | −1.2 | TE31▲5 | 3 | 701,199 |
| WR | Antonio WilliamsWAS | 9% | 1% | 0% – 1% | 4.0#87 pos | ▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 13%0.48x base | -4.2#216 | +1.3 | WR67▲5 | 3 | — |
| QB | Tyson BagentCHI | 3% | — | no bid | 13.3#35 pos | ▲Quarterback1.84x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 22%0.80x base | -5.3#103 | · | QB35▲8 | 3 | 127,698 |
| RB | Joe MixonFA | · | — | no bid | · | · | · | · | · | · | 3 | 373,871 |
| WR | Chris BellMIA | 8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 5.4#71 pos | · | 25%0.93x base | -2.7#170 | +1.1 | WR65▲3 | 2 | — |
| RB | Dameon PiercePHI | · | 2% | 2% – 5% | 2.5#111 pos | · | · | -6.3#107 | · | · | 2 | 47,184 |
| RB | Jaydon BluePHI | 1% | 2% | 2% – 5% | 2.0#113 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -6.9#109 | · | RB92▲5 | 2 | 35,408 |
| WR | Makai LemonPHI | 62% | 2% | 1% – 4% | 4.9#77 pos | ▲Inside ECR top 1251.41x | 32%1.18x base | -3.3#189 | −0.6 | WR50±0 | 2 | — |
| WR | Mitch TinsleyCIN | · | 1.5% | 1.5% – 5% | 1.3#128 pos | · | · | -6.9#321 | · | · | 2 | — |
| TE | Hunter HenryNE | 53% | 1% | 0% – 2% | 8.2#15 pos | ▲Tight end2.25x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 26%0.93x base | 0.0#94 | +1.1 | TE21▲2 | 2 | — |
| RB | Kaleb JohnsonGB | 7% | 1% | 0% – 2% | 1.0#81 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -7.8#394 | +0.2 | RB57▲1 | 2 | — |
| QB | C.J. StroudHOU | 44% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 15.4#22 pos | ▲Quarterback1.84x▲Inside ECR top 1251.41x | 47%1.71x base | -3.2#185 | 0.0 | QB18▲5 | 2 | 293,482 |
| WR | Cyrus AllenKC | 11% | — | no bid | 1.1#135 pos | ▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 13%0.48x base | -7.1#339 | −0.5 | WR88▲7 | 2 | 60,054 |
| WR | Romeo DoubsNE | 65% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4#53 pos | ▲Inside ECR top 1251.41x | 32%1.18x base | -0.8#126 | −0.6 | WR43▲3 | 1 | 833,344 |
| TE | Chig OkonkwoWAS | 19% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 6.2#24 pos | ▲Tight end2.25x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 26%0.93x base | -1.9#155 | +0.4 | TE27▼1 | 1 | — |
| RB | Kendre MillerNO | 10% | 2% | 1% – 4% | 3.5#58 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -5.3#244 | −0.4 | RB60▲1 | 1 | — |
| WR | Tre TuckerLV | 42% | 2% | 1% – 4% | 7.8#49 pos | · | 25%0.93x base | -0.4#105 | −0.3 | WR60▼2 | 1 | 32,532 |
| QB | Michael PenixATL | 9% | 1% | 0% – 2% | 13.5#28 pos | ▲Quarterback1.84x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 22%0.80x base | -5.1#240 | +0.6 | QB24▲3 | 1 | 39,303 |
| RB | Chris BrooksGBQuestionable | 6% | 1% | 1% | 2.9#62 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -6.0#268 | −3.2 | RB74▼1 | 1 | — |
| WR | Keenan AllenINDQuestionable | 37% | — | no bid | 6.2#67 pos | · | 25%0.93x base | -2.0#158 | +0.3 | WR63▼2 | 1 | — |
| QB | Jalon DanielsTB | · | — | no bid | 13.3#34 pos | · | · | -5.3#128 | · | · | 1 | 27,908 |
| RB | Tyjae SpearsTEN | 37% | — | no bid | 7.2#38 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -1.7#147 | 0.0 | RB58▼1 | 1 | — |
| RB | MarShawn LloydGB | 52% | — | no bid | 6.6#41 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -2.2#163 | −3.9 | RB51▼4 | 1 | 235,062 |
| WR | Jordyn TysonNOIR | 55% | — | no bid | 7.9#55 pos | ▲Inside ECR top 1251.41x | 32%1.18x base | -0.3#102 | · | WR54▲1 | 1 | — |
| WR | Adonai MitchellNYJDoubtful | 31% | — | no bid | 6.4#61 pos | ▲Inside ECR top 1251.41x | 32%1.18x base | -1.8#153 | +0.7 | WR51▼2 | 1 | 34,640 |
| WR | Jaylin NoelHOU | 4% | — | no bid | 5.3#73 pos | ▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 13%0.48x base | -2.9#175 | +0.9 | WR75▲2 | 1 | — |
| WR | Malachi FieldsNYG | 11% | — | no bid | 5.0#76 pos | ▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 13%0.48x base | -3.2#184 | −1.9 | WR73▼2 | 1 | — |
| WR | Jauan JenningsMIN | 15% | — | no bid | 6.2#66 pos | ▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 13%0.48x base | -2.0#157 | −2.5 | WR80▼1 | 1 | — |
| WR | Ted HurstTB | 4% | — | no bid | 4.2#83 pos | ▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 13%0.48x base | -4.0#210 | +2.7 | WR76▼3 | 1 | — |
| WR | Efton ChismNE | 1% | — | no bid | 0.8#145 pos | ▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 13%0.48x base | -7.4#365 | −0.6 | WR121±0 | 1 | 108,332 |
| WR | Cody WhiteLV | · | — | no bid | 2.6#101 pos | · | · | -5.6#254 | +5.1 | · | 1 | 58,434 |
| RB | Kimani VidalLAC | 2% | — | no bid | 1.6#73 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -7.3#346 | +1.9 | RB62▲1 | 1 | 65,395 |
| RB | Seth McGowanIND | 2% | — | no bid | 2.2#67 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -6.6#300 | +0.2 | RB72▼7 | 1 | 32,192 |
| WR | Jerry JeudyCLE | 15% | — | no bid | 4.0#85 pos | ▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 13%0.48x base | -4.2#214 | −4.1 | WR84▼4 | 1 | — |
| RB | Kaelon BlackSF | 30% | — | no bid | 3.9#57 pos | ▼Running back0.59x | 17%0.61x base | -4.9#234 | −1.3 | RB44▼3 | 1 | — |
| RB | Jonah ColemanDENIR | 34% | — | no bid | 3.0#63 pos | ▼Running back0.59x | 17%0.61x base | -5.8#248 | +0.3 | RB43±0 | 1 | — |
| RB | Emmett JohnsonKC | 25% | — | no bid | 3.4#59 pos | ▼Running back0.59x | 17%0.61x base | -5.4#247 | +1.1 | RB38▲4 | 1 | — |
| RB | Mike WashingtonLV | 39% | — | no bid | 4.3#53 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -4.5#223 | +2.6 | RB46▼1 | 1 | — |
| TE | Terrance FergusonLARIR | 18% | — | no bid | 4.3#38 pos | ▲Tight end2.25x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 26%0.93x base | -3.8#177 | +3.9 | TE23▼5 | 1 | — |
| QB | Sam DarnoldSEA | 51% | — | no bid | 14.7#25 pos | ▲Quarterback1.84x | 38%1.41x base | -3.9#209 | −1.6 | QB20▲1 | 1 | — |
| QB | Malik WillisMIA | 24% | — | no bid | 16.1#18 pos | ▲Quarterback1.84x | 38%1.41x base | -2.5#166 | 0.0 | QB21▼2 | 1 | — |
| QB | Geno SmithNYJ | 11% | — | no bid | 14.1#26 pos | ▲Quarterback1.84x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 22%0.80x base | -4.5#226 | −0.4 | QB23▼1 | 1 | — |
| TE | AJ BarnerSEA | 16% | — | no bid | 7.3#20 pos | ▲Tight end2.25x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 26%0.93x base | -0.8#127 | −0.9 | TE25▼1 | 1 | — |
| RB | Tank BigsbyPHIIR | 24% | — | no bid | 2.4#68 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 8%0.30x base | -6.5#267 | −0.8 | RB67▼11 | 1 | 130,676 |
| RB | Zach CharbonnetSEAPUP | 60% | — | no bid | 8.8#29 pos | ▼Running back0.59x▲RB, round 1-2 pick10.46x▼Outside ECR top 1500.45x | 48%1.77x base | 0.0#95 | · | RB50▲1 | 1 | 28,323 |
Showing every player the experts named this week. Bid = trimmed mean of each source's headline figure, as % of season budget. Range spans every figure they published, including aggressive and desperation tiers. Click a row for the breakdown. Value and VOR are computed under a default half-PPR 12-team lineup; the expert rank is the half-PPR FantasyPros page, matched to that scoring.